by Xin Ping

Financial cooperation is an important underpinning of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which has entered its second decade with a bright future ahead. After years of hype about the so-called “debt trap”, more and more people have now come to see that such a narrative is nothing but a lie. The logic is quite simple and straightforward: as a “debt trap” strategy produces no winners, it would be simply impossible to have remained in place for as long as 10 years.

As some debts under the BRI framework are due to mature, some begin to question: Will China be able to recover its debt? Will the BRI projects go bankruptcy? Or how will the BRI financial cooperation achieve win-win results especially in the post-COVID time when many countries remain mired in sluggish recovery? Others doubt that the newly-introduced “small yet smart” programs may draw heavy investment away from large-scale infrastructure projects, and the overall BRI financial output may shrink. Or simply put, China is getting less generous. While these arguments may seem plausible at first glance, they cannot stand up to closer scrutiny. 

It is true that a large portion of China’s overseas financial cooperation covers transportation, energy and communications sectors where loans are needed to build infrastructure to generate profits in the long run. Given the high initial costs, it is unrealistic to expect immediate returns. But people will see the benefits for years to come. For example, since  its opening in December 2021, the China-Laos Railway has carried 3,197,600 passengers, averaging 4,889 passengers a day and with a record high of 10,197 passengers in one day. In 2023, it carried 1,759,900 passengers in a period of just over eight months. In terms of freight transport, a total of 5,381,900 tons of goods was exported, averaging 8,229 tons a day, with a maximum of 15,250 tons shipped in one day. In addition, it has cut the transportation cost by half. As it is incorporated into the logistics network of the Indo-China Peninsula, it will witness growing passenger and freight transport volumes down the road and it’s only a matter of time before the railway project starts to make a profit.

Here is another point about the BRI investment. The ultimate goal is to help boost the development capability of countries taking part in the BRI cooperation. Different from loans offered by Western countries, BRI financial cooperation provides assistance for countries to grow their own muscle. As a result, a healthy and wholesome industrial system will be put in place which can promise returns in the future. African leaders, in refute to the “debt-trap” narrative, have said openly that every penny invested in the BRI projects has transformed into the strength to boost development and the impetus to deliver better lives to the people.

The “small yet smart” programs serve the same goal as the large-scale infrastructure projects. As they mainly cover the areas of agriculture, education and health which are closely related to people’s daily life, investment on these programs are more dynamic, diversified and direct, which aims at supplementing instead of replacing investment on grand infrastructure projects. The BRI investment on projects, big and small, will help BRI partner countries realize all-around development. Other than constructing hospital buildings, BRI cooperation also helps provide the expertise of doctors and nurses. The BRI investment as a whole, instead of decreasing, will only be more targeted and well-calibrated to make the projects more effective and useful to secure a win-win outcome.

In short, the BRI, a project of the century, should be evaluated with long-term perspective rather than myopia or isolated cases. As part of South-South cooperation, the BRI financial cooperation follows the laws of the economy. It should not be analyzed in a purely mercantile way. If it is seen through the lens of development, there would be no better description than the word “win-win”.

(The author is a commentator on international affairs, writing regularly for Xinhua News Agency, CGTN, Global Times, China Daily etc.,who can be reached at xinping604@gmail.com)

The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of Xinhuanet.